It's been a wild two weeks since the last bracketology. A lot has changed, but a lot has stayed the same.
No. 1 Syracuse vs. Siena (AQ)
No. 8 Virginia vs. Villanova
No. 5 Maryland vs. Stony Brook (AQ)
No. 4 Johns Hopkins vs. Mount St. Mary's (AQ)
No. 3 Cornell (AQ) vs. Hofstra (AQ)
No. 6 Denver (AQ) vs. Yale
No. 7 Duke vs. North Carolina
No. 2 Notre Dame vs. Bucknell (AQ)
Last two in: Yale, North Carolina
First two out: Massachusetts, Army
Analysis
The Cornell upset at Syracuse wreaked a little havoc, but the Orange can still secure the No. 1 seed with a win over Notre Dame next week. Meanwhile the Irish should finish no worse than second, with just one loss on the season projected. Cornell and Hopkins each control the other top seeds with their strong finishes to the season.
Maryland's ACC tournament victory gets it the highest seed possible with its three losses, and Denver likely slots in right behind based on its head-to-head win over Duke. The Blue Devils and UVA take the last two seeds based on reputation and the annual ACC bump.
As far as the lower tier goes, the gap between those in and out is widening by the day. Villanova gets in despite not having a signature victory, but having a consistent body of work. As long as Yale gets to the Ivy League final, the Bulldogs should nab one of the last at large bids with a 12-3 record and some decent wins. The last spot likely goes to UNC, who could finish with six losses but sneak into the tournament based on its RPI. If any of the "locks" like Bucknell, Hofstra or Denver slip up in their conference tournament, the Tar Heels could be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.
Right now, UMass sits on the wrong side of the bubble after losing to Hofstra this week. The Minutemen need to win their conference tourney or get some serious help to make the field. The winner of the Army/Colgate Patriot League tournament game has a shot as well, but they'll likely need to knock off Bucknell in the final to get in.
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