Sunday, May 1, 2011

Updated Bracketology (5/1/11)

There's one week to go in the college lacrosse season, and we're really starting to see the bracket take form. Most of the at-large selections are locked down now, and a lot of the seeding is pretty set in stone as well. Let's take a look.


As always, these rankings are based on where teams are projected to finish, not necessarily where they stand now.

No. 1 Syracuse vs. Siena (AQ)
No. 8 Virginia vs. Villanova

No. 5 Maryland vs. Hofstra
No. 4 Johns Hopkins vs. Penn

No. 3 Cornell (AQ) vs. Stony Brook (AQ)
No. 6 Denver (AQ) vs. Massachusetts (AQ)

No. 7 Duke vs. North Carolina
No. 2 Notre Dame vs. Bucknell (AQ)

Last two in: Penn, North Carolina
First two out: Army, Loyola

Analysis
Guess what? Mount St. Mary's is out. Not because of anything they did wrong, but because the Mount moved to the NEC this season and I failed to realize that conference does not have an automatic bid. That opens up a new at-large spot, which Penn or North Carolina is happy to accept.

I stuck by Yale for much of this season, arguing the Bulldogs deserved to have a spot. But Yale lost to Penn head to head and its crushing loss to Harvard to end the regular season all but puts them out of contention. Their best win this year is against Georgetown, who is below .500. Not good enough.

Penn's loss to a Bratton-less UVA hurts as well, but the Quakers have huge wins over Duke and Bucknell, and finish second in the Ivy League for the regular season. They might need to make the Ivy Tournament finals to clinch it, but the Quakers should get into the dance.

The final at-large spot is literally up for grabs. If Army beats Hopkins this week, the Black Knights will almost certainly get into the field. If Yale, UMass, Loyola or Penn State advance to their conference tournament championship games, they will all have a strong argument. The guess here - and it really is nothing more than a guess at this point - is that UMass actually makes a run and takes the Colonial title. Hofstra would wrap up an at-large spot and there will be one less spot on the table.

Oh, and UNC gets in even after it loses to Notre Dame this week. The bottom of the field is too weak, and UNC does have a better resume than anyone on the outside, as sad as that may seem.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Updated Lacrosse Bracketology (4/24/11)

It's been a wild two weeks since the last bracketology. A lot has changed, but a lot has stayed the same.

No. 1 Syracuse vs. Siena (AQ)
No. 8 Virginia vs. Villanova

No. 5 Maryland vs. Stony Brook (AQ)
No. 4 Johns Hopkins vs. Mount St. Mary's (AQ)

No. 3 Cornell (AQ) vs. Hofstra (AQ)
No. 6 Denver (AQ) vs. Yale

No. 7 Duke vs. North Carolina
No. 2 Notre Dame vs. Bucknell (AQ)

Last two in: Yale, North Carolina
First two out: Massachusetts, Army

Analysis
The Cornell upset at Syracuse wreaked a little havoc, but the Orange can still secure the No. 1 seed with a win over Notre Dame next week. Meanwhile the Irish should finish no worse than second, with just one loss on the season projected. Cornell and Hopkins each control the other top seeds with their strong finishes to the season.

Maryland's ACC tournament victory gets it the highest seed possible with its three losses, and Denver likely slots in right behind based on its head-to-head win over Duke. The Blue Devils and UVA take the last two seeds based on reputation and the annual ACC bump.

As far as the lower tier goes, the gap between those in and out is widening by the day. Villanova gets in despite not having a signature victory, but having a consistent body of work. As long as Yale gets to the Ivy League final, the Bulldogs should nab one of the last at large bids with a 12-3 record and some decent wins. The last spot likely goes to UNC, who could finish with six losses but sneak into the tournament based on its RPI. If any of the "locks" like Bucknell, Hofstra or Denver slip up in their conference tournament, the Tar Heels could be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.

Right now, UMass sits on the wrong side of the bubble after losing to Hofstra this week. The Minutemen need to win their conference tourney or get some serious help to make the field. The winner of the Army/Colgate Patriot League tournament game has a shot as well, but they'll likely need to knock off Bucknell in the final to get in.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

This can be my next tweet

Got this autogenerated from "This can be my next tweet."

Post Standard: Malcolm Cater accused of credit from my point line for tiger tomorrow. Thanks ...

Don't know what it means, but it made me laugh, when I needed it a lot following last night's lacrosse beatdown.

Fun site ... other gems:

NCAA Lacrosse primer - why you mean. SU fan. You're real tough. Nomar just did not die? That was traded.

Resavy just talking about jousting?? How do these guys the exercise bike I've been watching the most.

Just got kicked off two teams will return to dunk on the end of the dagger there. No FGs please.

Joel white gets old // John Adams: The ocean is indisputable now. Second time someone led off the last.

-The ocean is, indeed, indisputable.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

SU vs. Cornell: 3 Players to watch

Syracuse faces one of its last big tests of the season tonight when the Orange host Cornell at the Carrier Dome. Here are some key players to keep an eye on for SU.

Junior attack Tim Desko needs to find his scoring touch again
 Tim Desko
Where have you gone Timmy? The junior attack was cruising through the early part of the season, but has tallied just one goal in the last four games. Desko has been suffocated by defenses who seem to have adjusted to his game, allowing Stephen Keough to re-emerge as a scorer. Tonight would be a great time for him to snap out of his funk.

Josh Amidon
Guess what? Amidon has broken out of his slump and is finding different ways to score. The senior often relies on his long-range bomb but in each of the last two games, he's opened up the scoring with a goal from the doorstep. If Amidon can begin to contribute in different areas, it will open up lanes for his outside shot, which has eluded him for most of the year.

Brian Megill
You would think Megill would be a little more mature in his sophomore season, especially having played every game as a freshman. The defenseman earned two dumb penalties Saturday against Princeton and it's starting to become a trend. Megill leads the team in caused turnovers (15), but he also leads the team in penalties (9) and penalty minutes (7:30). Lack of discipline is one of the few ways Syracuse could lose to an inferior team, and Megill could be responsible for that.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Lacrosse Bracketology (Updated, 4/11)

***Note: This is not a reflection of where teams sit today, but where I project them to be at season's end***

***Note 2: This post was updated when I realized a few errors in predicting future results. Denver is added as a seeded team and Hofstra falls off the seed line. This also affected matchups due to geography***

There were a few shakeups to the lacrosse bracketology this week. Duke's loss to Denver alters the top of the bracket, while some teams that looked like contenders turned into pure, unadulterated pretenders. Let's take a look ...

No. 1 Syracuse vs. Siena (AQ)
No. 8 Denver (AQ) vs. Hofstra (AQ)

No. 5 Virginia vs. Stony Brook (AQ)
No. 4 Duke vs. Villanova

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. Bucknell (AQ)
No. 6 Maryland vs. North Carolina

No. 7 Cornell (AQ) vs. Massachusetts
No. 2 Hopkins vs. Mount St. Mary's (AQ)

Last two in: Villanova, Massachusetts
First two out: Yale, Army


Analysis
The biggest winners this week are likely Yale and UMass, who were nowhere near the tournament last week, and both could end up with at large spots by the end of the season. For now, the edge goes to the Minutemen, who have racked up quality wins over Army, Ohio State and Brown. The Bulldogs are right on their heels though.

With Bucknell’s win over Army, the Bison take the Patriot League AQ spot for now. Bucknell also puts itself in the driver’s seat for an at-large bid if it stumbles in the PL tournament with another quality victory on its resume.

Army likely drops out of the tournament picture for now, but the Black Knights will have their chances to creep back in. With a game left against Johns Hopkins and the Patriot League tournament still on the schedule, Army could very possibly make its way back into the picture.

Penn and Delaware both played themselves out of tournament contention with losses to Brown and Villanova, respectively. Likewise, Villanova is now solidly in the tournament, and can possibly lose one more and still hold onto an at-large bid.

As far as seeding goes, Duke drops to fourth as its fourth loss will be too much to keep ahead of a one-loss Notre Dame or Syracuse. I still think the Blue Devils run the table in the ACC though, and finish with a high seed.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Mid-Season Lacrosse All Americans

Inside Lacrosse released its mid-season All America list this week. Unfortunately they decided to follow the Big East formula for putting waaaayyy too many players on an All America team. Over here we like to actually follow rules of the game, and put 10 guys on the team - with three "specialists" coming off the bench. Take a look at both teams, and let me know if you disagree with any of the selections in the comments.


First Team
Jeremy Boltus – A, Army
Steele Stanwick – A, Virginia
Rob Pannel – A, Cornell
Kevin Crowley – M, Stony Brook
Jovan Miller – M, Syracuse
John Ranagan – M, Johns Hopkins
John Lade – D, Syracuse
Kevin Ridgway – D, Notre Dame
Tucker Durkin – D, Johns Hopkins
Pierce Basset – G, Johns Hopkins

Specialists
Brian Karalunas – LSM, Villanova
Matt Dolente – FO, Johns Hopkins
Kevin Drew – SSD, Syracuse

First team analysis
The three attacks are pretty easy to decide. These guys score in multiple ways with great vision and passing and all three can finish. Easy call here.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Lacrosse Bracketology

We're about a month away from the beginning of the NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament, so I thought it would be fun to play Joe Lunardi and try to predict this year's field.

This is not a reflection of where teams stand now, but where I predict them to be at season's end. There are many games remaining and there will certainly be unpredicted upsets. Conference tournament games will also affect AQs and seeding, and those are hard to predict.

But let's take a stab at the field for now and see how it stacks up later on in May.

No. 1 Syracuse vs. Siena (AQ)
No. 8 Hofstra (AQ) vs. Stony Brook (AQ)

No. 5 Virginia vs. Villanova
No. 4 Notre Dame vs. Bucknell

No. 3 Duke vs. Denver (AQ)
No. 6 Maryland vs. North Carolina

No. 7 Cornell (AQ) vs. Army (AQ)
No. 2 Hopkins vs. Mount St. Mary's (AQ)

Last two in: Villanova, Bucknell
First two out: Penn, Delaware

Analysis
There are basically three at-large spots up for grabs, going to North Carolina, Villanova and Bucknell. UNC is likely a lock because the phony ACC and conference tournament will boost the Tar Heels' strength of schedule.

As long as Bucknell takes care of the rest of the Patriot League - except for Army - the Bison should get in with some good quality wins and tough schedule.

Villanova controls its own destiny, with big games coming up against Delaware and Georgetown. But if the Wildcats drop one, their resume is likely not as good as their record suggests.

Penn can sneak in with a strong finish in the Ivy League and a slip up by Bucknell or Villanova. Delware can also get in if it upsets the Wildcats this week and runs the table in the regular season.

It's hard to seed the ACC with a potential for a three-way tie for second in the fake coference. Plus, the committee loves to prop up the teams' artificially inflated RPIs in the seeding. I wouldn't be shocked if UNC got a seed and ND fell to No. 5 or 6 - even with just one loss ... to the No. 1 team in the nation.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

SU lax looks a lot like SU hoops

Syracuse lacrosse is 6-0 and the No. 1 team in the nation. So why does it seem so frustrating to watch them? Oh, wait, because it has been. This team has been bothering me all season, despite its record, and it finally dawned on me today ...

Syracuse.com
I've seen this all before. The Orange lacrosse team is an exact copy of the Orange basketball team over the past two seasons, at least on offense. Every major SU hoops player is represented, except Scoop - which is probably why they're still ranked num ... ah sorry, Scoop, I promised I'd stop being a "hater" this year. 

So here's where I think the similarities lie. Take a look:

Stephen Keough – Rick Jackson
Keough does his damage inside, never more than a few yards from the net. He doesn’t need much room to get his shot off and he’ll get the rebound and the putback when possible. But he needs playmakers to get him the ball down low or he won’t be able to score.

Tim Desko – Brandon Triche
He’s growing up in front of our eyes. We all want him to take over with his skills but he can still disappear for long stretches. The future is bright for him, but is he good enough right now?

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Players to watch on Friday

I'd like to say we'll do this every week for SU lax games, but based on my track record, let's not get too greedy here. Let's go through each position grouping, with a bonus second midfielder for today.

Defense - Whoever draws Steele Stanwick
Really, the defense will have to put up a total team effort to win on Friday, as UVA boasts some of the most talented offensive players in the country. Whether it's John Lade (probably) or Joel White (sometimes), the task of stopping Stanwick will be the toughest of the day. Stanwick scored eight points against Stony Brook. Holding him to three on Friday will probably be a success for the Orange.

Midfield - Tim Harder
Between Stanwick, Chris Bocklet and the Brattons, there is just so much firepower on offense for the Cavs. That means someone - either midfielder Rhamel Bratton or attack Connor English - will draw a short stick middie. Kevin Drew will play a big role in this task as well, but look for Harder, the diminutive yet unflappable shorty to take on the challenge.

Midfield - 2nd midfield
You, me and Roy Simmons Jr. have exactly one fewer goal than the 2nd midfield line at SU this year. Pete Coleman's tally against Denver is all they've produced to date. To be fair, Tom Palesek has delivered two assists as an attack/midfield combination and some of JoJo Marasco's goals have come when he rotated up top like a midfielder. To match UVA's high scoring in this game, however, SU needs something, ANYTHING from its second middies.

Attack - Tim Desko
Marasco wears 22, which is basically a sign that says "cover me with your best guy." Keough is a finishing machine who is drawing other top defenders that used to cover Cody Jameison. That leaves room for Desko, who is quietly turning into an All-American at attack. He's probably SU's best shooter and is the most creative around the net. Look for a big day from the coach's son, who's becoming a star in his own right.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Lacrosse primer - 4 reasons why this game is so big

In case you haven't noticed - and judging by most people I talk to, you haven't - Syracuse and Virginia will square off in the Dome on Friday night, at 6 p.m. It's kind of a big deal, and here's why.
 


1. In case you missed it, we hate you, UVA 
But you already know that, so ...

1b. It's always the best game of the year
OK, maybe not THE best game of the year, but pretty darn close every year. Going into the 2009 game, the series between SU and UVA was tied at 12-12 (it's now 14-12, UVA). Since 1994, the Cavs lead the overall goal count by just two goals (170-168). Every game since 2008, including the 2OT thriller in the '08 Final Four, has been decided by just one goal. Expect another tight game that comes down to the final seconds ... it's about as reliable as a 20-win season for Jim Boeheim.

2. The road to the national title goes through ...
OK, so both Virginia and Syracuse missed the championship game last year. But that was an outlier for sure. In nine of the last 12 seasons, either SU or UVA has played for the national title on Memorial Day. At least one of them was in the final four in every one of those seasons except 2007 (never happened). Whoever wins this game will be the favorite to win the title the rest of the way.

Lacrosse primer - why you should hate UVA

Sean at Nunes wrote about why UVA is not really our arch-enemy last year. He's right. Johns Hopkins is truly our arch-enemy, our Georgetown of lacrosse, if not much, much more.

Mike Leveille making UVA fans cry in 2008


I have to let you in on a secret though. I HATE UVA. And you should too.

If you're new to this lacrosse thing, or just a casual fan who watches final fours to see SU celebrate titles (nothing wrong with that), you might not truly understand why. So here are a few reasons why you should truly hate the Cavaliers.

SU hasn't won a regular-season game against UVA since 2002
That's nine years. NINE YEARS. Sure, the Orange won the 2008 national semi-final against the Cavs, but for the most part, Virginia has dominated Syracuse in recent memory. No one dominates the Orange in lacrosse. NO ONE. This must change, now.

We're back ... under new management

OK, it's really the same management, but I have a little more time on my hands now.

For those of you who know me, I've always been a big football fan and hoops fan, but after going to SU, my true passion became lacrosse.

Everyone writes about football and basketball, so it's hard to come up with an original post from time to time, but that shouldn't be the problem with lacrosse.

Check back later today and this week as the Orange get ready for Lax-mageddon (yeah, I went there) against UVA. It's kind of a big deal.